George and Douglas Macgregor talking about state of the union...
Monday, April 22, 2024
Nima And Larry...
... talking shop.
Many begin to think that this is the US slow crawling away by paying $61 billion. I think so. Two new villages have been taken by Russian Army in the last 24 hours.
About Dehumanization.
I stated on a number of occasions that I will not allow to de-humanize peoples, as in nations. I do not like Israel, but not all Jews are genocidal Zionists, many are, but very many are not. Average Americans may not be the brightest people, but neither are Russians or Chinese, for that matter. We need to run a very fine line between often and rightly criticizing national traits which are not commendable and condemning people as a whole. The reason I brought this up is because people criticize, and they have a full right to do so, America's urban and suburban environments. Some of them are indeed ugly. Some cities simply decayed into oblivion--this is modern American economy and culture, but it is not a totality of it.
And here is where I make a distinction. People do not like strip-malls? They have a full right to not like them, but I do not necessarily condemn them, strip-malls that is. In fact, I think many of them serve a very good community purpose and who said that one does not need a good grocery store and nail salon? It is one thing to justifiably condemn consumerism, totally another to see not just aesthetical positives but utility which is also a cultural trait. And here is where I come to the defense of one story America. In fact, it is where real America still survives. It is also America I love dearly. Yes, some towns and hamlets are ugly, but many are cozy, inviting, friendliest and pleasing, that is until they elect Democratic mayors;) For people who travel in and to the West of the Rockies it is normal to constantly pass through some of the most beautiful towns. There is nothing wrong with such places as Wallace, ID.
Or coastal towns of Washington or Oregon, with the exception of Aberdeen--that is a shithole, I guess Cobain's suicide has something to do with his town of birth. But many other towns are beautiful and unique. Have you been to Astoria, OR?
And on, and on, and on. You know what Switzerland or Germany's alpine country do not have on this America? They don't have ocean and scale. And don't get me started on Northern California and Redwoods. So, there is nothing wrong with truck stops either.
These guys make the country go. Well, the old Butte is kinda shitty, but the rest of it is charming and Montana's beauty and expanse compensate for it. Would I live in Germany? No. Would I live in Montana or Idaho if I had to? Absolutely. There is much more to this America than just appearances. And even in Russia, with Altai being in a direct competition with America's West, the nearest ocean is in 4 to 5 hour flight. Big water makes all the difference, including climate. In the end, this is the only remaining America we've got, the rest of it is over. Consider this, the movie The Postman by Kevin Costner is shot in Washington, Oregon and Arizona and I love the movie. And then there are the East Coast towns and some of them are gorgeous. So, be kind to your local strip-mall and local COSTCO;)
A Profound LOL.
Sure, sure.
I have news for Financial Times--even $120 billion are not going to change anything, unless NATO somehow finds personnel and hardware to somehow deploy about a million personnel to fight Russia. Of course, even in this case this number of personnel will have very low morale and training and will have no viable air defense, but, hey, can we imagine things for the heck of it?
Now about tower in Kharkov. I remember one US Army general trying to convince the audience of either CNN or MSNBC that, and I quote, "Russian long range weapons are nowhere near as accurate as American ones". Well, today Russians blew up the top of Kharkov TV tower by a long-range weapon and that tells you how accurate those weapons are. Let me put it mildly--they are as accurate as any long-range weapon can possibly be, and that tells you that they have damn good inertial navigation and excellent homing capabilities.
Sunday, April 21, 2024
About ATACMS And "Leakers"...
... to those who still think that ATACMS decide anything. I totally get where Scott comes from in his apprehension about Crimean Bridge safety but let's step back and think for a minute purely tactically, considering the fact that.
1. ATACMS have been in use in SMO for a while now. Here is one example of many, this is from October 25, 2023.
Translation: “Over the past 24 hours, two US-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were intercepted,” the publication says. In addition, during the day, an S-200 anti-aircraft missile, two HARM anti-radar missiles and two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted. Previously, the military department did not report the interception of ATACMS missiles that the Ukrainian Armed Forces received from the Pentagon.
So, as you can see, those, including its longest range (300 km) version, are being successfully intercepted by Russian AD and militarily make no difference whatsoever on the theater of operations, EVEN if they are able to achieve one or two "leakers".
2. "Leaker" is, of course, the missile or projectile which gets through. Considering well articulated overall effectiveness of Russian Air Defense of around 95%, as stated by no other than Mr. Putin himself (In Russian), which is very close to reality because all data points towards this astonishing effectiveness, we can easily assume that in order to get even two "leakers" (most likely through combined heterogeneous salvo--Scalps/Stormshadows, ATACMS, maybe even USVs et al), in air they will need:
2/5 = n/100
n=40 missiles.
They will need 40 missile salvo to get two leakers to the Crimean Bridge. Let's turn our civil engineering and operational minds on.
3. Crimean Bridge is not just the bridge--it is THE longest bridge in Europe (19 kilometers), it is also the classic Linear Target which is IMPOSSIBLE to completely destroy other than maybe one or two flights of it. The juiciest of those being its main flight with the length of 235 meters.
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If you get to this flight by couple of ATACMS, theoretically you can destroy it and that will require a much longer time to restore unlike it would be the case with other flights which are shorter and easier to restore. So, Scott is correct when worrying about those ATACMS, it is possible to damage the bridge but...
4. Here comes this issue: can 404, having real time ISR from the US, actually collect 40 missile salvo? Here is a rough range of ATACMS and where it can be theoretically pre-deployed for a theoretical salvo:
This yellow segment is under control of AFU, for now. So, the possible area for salvo is shrinking. So, the most likely target will be, yet again, Sevastopol. It doesn't mean that Pentagon wouldn't stop thinking about sabotaging any other objects on Russian territory or trying to kill more Russian civilians--this they know how to do--but this is how their thinking goes. You see, Russia is not Iraq and they don't teach real war at USMA at West Point or in Leavenworth, KS. They never faced one.
So, are "leakers" possible? Absolutely. Will they change anything? Nope. The outcome is clear and now Khohol recognized that they will actually get something around $8 billion in... loans, not those $61 billion which go to Pentagon for replenishing stocks, filling pockets of lobbyists from MIC and continuing to finance propaganda about "the finest fighting force in history". They only know how to fight PR wars. Keep this in mind, including the fact that the Bridge is well defended.
Lada-class...
... sadly only in Russian. Egorov and his Military Acceptance go inside Lada-class sub. These are state-of-the-art subs with same state-of-the-art sensor suite and CICS. So, here it is.
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